All Posts

A US licence opened the door to Russian diesel, but falling cracks and sanctions risk may leave few buyers willing to take the other side of the trade.

The size of political swings may matter more than their direction. Why rising incomes are not buying security, and how borrowing to provide it adds risk.

US copper inventories of around 1.6Mt may stay put even without tariffs. What policy uncertainty means for COMEX premiums, LME prices and inflation.

With global debt above three times GDP, scarce capability is setting the terms. Why minerals, processing and compute are becoming sources of power.

A weaker yen inflates the value of Japan's overseas assets and the cost of the resources it must import. Why that tension matters for US financing costs.

Argentina targets 17.95 Mtpa of LNG capacity from Vaca Muerta by the early 2030s. The projects, the Permian comparison, and the political risk to 2027.

US tariffs, Chinese export controls and rising strategic demand are reshaping the copper market. We explore why secure access may matter more than price.

Gold surged from $4,046 to $4,388 in two weeks. We rank the drivers, Fed rate-cut repricing, U.S.-Iran/Hormuz risk premium, technical momentum, and returning ETF inflows and ask whether $4,400 is a floor or a local peak.

El Niño isn't just a food security story. This piece examines how water scarcity and hydropower dependence are compounding cost pressures across copper, aluminium, lithium, nickel, and rare earth supply chains - and what that means for portfolio positioning.

When to rotate out of equities, and how to build commodity positions that survive short-cycle volatility. Three strategies, three sleeves, one framework.

Seven interconnected global risks – climate, pandemic, power scarcity, conflict, sovereign debt, cyber and AI – that markets are currently priced to ignore.

Short-cycle volatility is testing conviction in commodities. But the long-cycle supply deficit in oil and copper is becoming the default, not the tail risk.

Equity markets are priced for a world without risk. The recovery trade runs through physical assets: energy, metals and gold. The question is how to hold them.

China's Belt and Road meets America's Moat and Muscle. As Trump and Xi prepare to meet in Beijing, the structural collision is shaping the global contest for critical minerals.

A US-Iran agreement on Hormuz may move tankers and drop oil prices but the real story lies beneath the headline. This analysis maps the plausible deal architecture, the tolling sticking points, and the structural dependencies ,sulphur, helium, and aluminium, that no bypass pipeline can fix.

Markets are pricing calm, while physical energy markets, retail exposure, and overlooked macro risks tell a different story. A closer look at who is absorbing the risk and why the timing matters.

Geopolitical tensions in the Gulf are reshaping global trade, energy markets, and industrial strategy as stability, supply security, and policy flexibility are repriced.

Global central banks face a pivotal week as rising energy prices from the Iran conflict reshape inflation outlooks, rate decisions, and market expectations.

The crisis in the Strait of Hormuz could reshape who safeguards global trade routes as the US weighs coalition building against a potential Chinese role.

Geopolitical tensions and LNG competition are straining global energy and commodity markets, exposing vulnerabilities in Europe’s gas supply, power pricing, carbon policy, and strategic metals.