The New Metals Standard: Copper Miners Mergers and Acquisitions 2026

06/01/2026

Copper has delivered one of its strongest years in more than a decade as prices rose by more than one third in 2025 and have now reached record levels above $13,000 per tonne. A convergence of booming demand growth, supply disruptions at major mines, and tariff-driven dislocations between US and international markets has boosted spot prices, and unsurprisingly also incentivised M&A between majors and juniors as we have previously observed in gold and silver.

Aging mines, falling grades and long development timelines continue straining supply. Many readers will already know the widely touted base case that demand for copper will massively exceed supply by 2040. Wood Mackenzie just last month published renewed forecasts that global copper demand will surge by 24% to reach ~ 43Mtpa by 2035. Estimating 8Mtpa of new mining capacity in addition to 3.5Mtpa of supply from scrap, will be required to balance the market in 2035. They ballpark costs to deliver this supply growth at >$200bn, whilst total capital investment in copper mining since 2019 has only amounted to ~$76bn.

Since 2019, Chinese miners appear to have been the only party brave enough to roll the dice and bet big on higher-risk jurisdictions in order to meet their political ambitions and deliver fully integrated value chains.

Given President Trump’s disdain for Chinese resource dominance, this is a trend unlikely to be left unchecked.

Freeport McMoran CEO Kathleen Quirk stated on Dec 4^th that more government incentives are needed to boost US copper output, and that Freeport would pursue an acquisition if "the stars and the moon" aligned but is not counting on deals to grow. Freeport, which operates mines across the Americas and in Indonesia, would be interested only in buying a rival copper company or mine that could have synergies with its existing assets and technology, Quirk said. It would seem the stars and the moon is simply referring to the US government and a prime takeover candidate.

Other copper majors both Chinese and US are already going gangbusters on the dealmaking front, so perhaps Freeport will be tempted into the fold this year. Below are some of the notable deals in 2025 and a handful of takeover targets for 2026.

Notable Copper Mining Deals in 2025

Jiangxi Copper / SolGold - December 24^th

China’s Jiangxi Copper agreed to acquire SolGold in a transaction valuing the company at approximately £867 million ($1.17 billion). The 28 pence per share offer represented a premium of roughly 43 percent to SolGold’s share price prior to the approach.

The asset is SolGold’s Cascabel project in Ecuador’s Imbabura province, home to the Alpala porphyry copper gold system. From a technical perspective, Alpala’s published NI 43-101 mineral resource (March 2024) highlights the scale and grade that makes it a target:

• Measured + Indicated: 3,013 Mt at 0.52% CuEq (10.7 Mt contained copper, 26.8 Moz gold, 91.3 Moz silver)

• Inferred: 607 Mt at 0.36% CuEq

  
  

Cascabel combines scale with a defined high-grade core, meaning an early, high-margin development phase is achievable followed by a long life of mine.

Glencore / Quechua (Peru) - December 16^th

Following the bolt-on asset theme highlighted earlier by Freeport - Glencore acquired the undeveloped Quechua copper project in Peru from Japan’s Pan Pacific Copper. While financial terms were undisclosed, Peru’s mining project portfolio has put the development bill at roughly $1.29 billion, which highlights why proximity and shared infrastructure matter.

Quechua is strategically located near Glencore’s Antapaccay mine and the Coroccohuayco development project. The acquisition reflects a clear preference for brownfield expansion, where new deposits can leverage existing infrastructure and operating expertise.

A historic project disclosure by Mitsui Mining and Smelting describes ore reserves of approximately 260 million tonnes at an average copper grade of 0.61% (using a 0.4% copper cut off), implying roughly 1.6 million tonnes of contained copper. Put simply, Quechua provides Glencore with optionality to extend the life of its Peruvian copper hub.

Glencore has positioned itself at the centre of the copper M&A narrative. The company has outlined plans to grow copper production at close to double-digit rates through the end of the decade, targeting approximately 1.6 million tonnes of annual production by the mid-2030s.

It’s existing stakes in world-class assets such as Collahuasi in Chile (44%) and Antamina (33.75%) in Peru, will likely continue to be complemented by targeted acquisitions like Quechua as they expand their foothold in the Andean belt.

Following the Anglo-Teck merger, plans to integrate adjacent Chilean assets Collahuasi and Quebrada Blanca) for an extra 175,000 t annual copper by 2030 have been put forward and the deal was unanimously approved by both boards and by shareholders in December 2025. Glencore, which owns an equal stake in Collahuasi may pursue further M&A for a similar strategic integration.

Fortescue / Alta Copper (Canariaco, Peru) - December 14^th

Not all M&A has been limited to the traditional copper majors. Fortescue agreed to acquire the remaining shares of Alta Copper, valuing the company at about C$139 million ($101 million). The offer price of C$1.40 per share was a 50% premium vs. the 30D volume-weighted average price of Alta Copper Shares.

Canariaco is another example of the South American, bulk tonnage copper story that buyers are willing to underwrite. Reuters described a large mineral resource base of roughly 1.1 billion tonnes at 0.42% copper equivalent, plus an additional 0.9 billion tonnes at 0.29% copper equivalent.

The message is simple: new entrants want in, and they want scale. That broadens the pool of buyers for juniors, particularly those that can point to a large resource in an established copper belt, even if the path to permitting and construction still carries risk.

BHP’s Failed Bid for Anglo American - November 24^th

At the top end of the market, consolidation pressures were underscored by BHP’s unsuccessful attempt to acquire Anglo American. Anglo’s copper exposure has become increasingly valuable as the metal transitions from a future cash cow to a near-term supply concern.

BHP’s interest reflected the challenge facing diversified miners with long-dated organic growth pipelines. While BHP holds some of the world’s largest copper resources, key projects require years of investment before production ramps up. Anglo, by contrast, offers immediate and large-scale copper exposure.

The rejection of BHP’s bid underlines the seller’s market for high-quality copper assets. Anglo’s ongoing merger with Teck Resources has reinforced its strategic value and reduced the need to accept an opportunistic approach, even from the world’s largest miner by market cap.

2026 Outlook

South America remains the centre of gravity

-        Most of the notable transactions have been concentrated in the Andean copper belt. They offer the combination of geology, scale, and existing industry infrastructure that is hard to find elsewhere.

Scale gets you in the room and the grade gets you paid

-        Cascabel is a multi-billion tonne resource. Its high-grade core can anchor early cash flow. Quechua combines a mid-tier development tonnage with a 0.61% copper grade that is above average for such a large open pit style project.

Development-Stage Projects Near Major Operations

Marimaca Copper (Marimaca Project, Chile)

Marimaca stands out because is a fully permitted, near-term production opportunity – a rarity among copper juniors.

The Marimaca Oxide Deposit (MOD) in Antofagasta Region is a mid-sized oxide copper project with 748,000 tonnes contained Cu in reserves and a planned 50,000 tpa cathode output via heap leach/SX-EW. In August 2025 Marimaca delivered a Definitive Feasibility Study showing $1.1billion post-tax NPV (8%), 39% IRR and 2.2 year payback period at a long-term price of $5.05/lb Cu. Initial capex is only ~$587M – very low capital intensity for 50kt annual copper – thanks to the project’s proximity to infrastructure, low strip ratio of 0.8:1 over life of mine and simple metallurgy.

It sits just 25 km from the Mejillones port and 40 km from Antofagasta city, with existing roads, access to renewable power, and the option to use recycled seawater for processing. Construction permits (RCA) were approved in late 2025, Marimaca’s largest shareholders include a PE fund, Greenstone Resources LLP @ 21.6% (no doubt looking for its next big payday).  An established producer could move to acquire Marimaca Copper Corp to secure a new 50ktpa operation by 2027 – which is lightning fast for a new mining operation.

Hot Chili Ltd. (Costa Fuego Project, Chile)

Hot Chili’s Costa Fuego is an advanced copper-gold project in Chile, Glencore acquired a 9.99% stake in 2021 (since diluted to 7.5%) and secured offtake rights for 60% of Costa Fuego’s concentrate over 8 years – a strong signal that this project is on the radar of major players.

A March 2025 pre-feasibility study confirmed a 14-year mine life producing ~116,000 tpa copper equivalent at low all-in costs (estimated ~$1.38/lb). The project’s resource base (~725 Mt grading 0.47% CuEq) includes a high-grade core that could support a 95,000 tpa Cu + 48,000 oz Au production profile. Glencore’s involvement validates the project’s potential and earmarks Hot Chili as a likely takeover candidate once the project reaches feasibility.

Solaris Resources (Warintza Project, Ecuador)

Solaris’s Warintza is a giant copper-molybdenum-gold porphyry in southeastern Ecuador. A robust Pre-Feasibility Study on November 6^th 2025 boasted 3.7 billion tonnes in Measured + Indicated resources (plus 2.1 Bt inferred) and a maiden reserve of 1.3Bt @ 0.41% CuEq, underpinning a 22-year mine life. Average copper production was outlined of ~240,000 tonnes per year (first 15 years) at first-quartile cash costs – a truly world-class scale.

Warintza lies in the same Jurassic copper belt as the Mirador mine (operated by a Chinese consortium) and other big deposits, meaning a buyer could leverage regional infrastructure to a degree. More importantly, Solaris secured a $200M royalty/stream financing in 2025 to advance the project, signalling confidence in its future. Given Warintza’s standout characteristics, any major copper producer looking to move the needle on their annual production could consider acquiring Solaris to fast-track this project.

Regulus Resources (AntaKori Project, Peru)

Regulus is a solid buyout candidate for any company looking to add 60,000+ tonnes/year of copper production.

AntaKori is a high-grade copper-gold skarn/porphyry system in northern Peru that sits directly adjacent to two operating mines – the Tantahuatay gold mine (Buenaventura/Southern Copper) and Cerro Corona copper-gold mine (Gold Fields). Regulus’s 2019 technical report showed ~250 Mt Indicated @ 0.48% Cu, 0.29 g/t Au, 7.5 g/t Ag.

In July 2024 Regulus entered a collaboration agreement with Compañia Minera Coimolache (the operator of Tantahuatay) to evaluate a joint development of AntaKori’s sulphide copper ore alongside BV/SC’s existing operation. A combined mineral resource estimate is due for release upon a mutual publishing agreement between both parties.

The obvious synergy is AntaKori’s deposit can be mined and processed through an existing plant or planned expansion of a neighbouring mine. Given that Buenaventura and Southern Copper are involved next door, and Gold Fields operates the other neighbour (which is near end of life), it’s plausible one of these stakeholders or a third-party major will acquire Regulus to consolidate the district. The project’s grade and location with road access already in place and a nearby mill mean it would slot in nicely as a brownfield expansion.

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