The New Metals Standard: Volume I - Gold

15/10/25

Preface

The New Metals Standard explores the return to tangible value in a world of shifting monetary order and industrial transformation. Metals that once defined civilisation’s progress are re-emerging as investable expressions of both defence and growth.

Each volume will examine one “sleeve” within this framework. The series begins with gold, the monetary anchor; before moving through silver, the bridge between value and utility; and into the industrial suite of copper, aluminium, nickel, and tin.

The renewed strength across these markets underscores a structural re-evaluation of value itself. Silver, testing the sustainability of pricing above $50 per ounce, and copper, approaching $11,000 per tonne, reflect investors’ rotation toward assets grounded in the physical economy rather than paper abstractions. The New Metals Standard builds on this shift, translating it into an investable framework that unites monetary confidence with productive reality.

The intellectual roots of this framework trace back to John Maynard Keynes, who described gold as a “barbarous relic” not out of contempt for the metal itself, but for the rigidity of anchoring value to a single standard. He envisioned a composite measure of worth, tied to a basket of productive commodities rather than scarcity alone. A century later, his logic feels newly relevant. The post-1971 assumptions of deep liquidity, universal dollar trust, and frictionless trade no longer hold. Tariff regimes, reserve diversification, and monetary fatigue have revived the search for value backed by what can be produced, stored, or transformed.

Within each sleeve, the New Metals Standard applies this principle in practice, combining an equity basket of relevant companies with a corresponding derivative position. This may take the form of an outright directional trade, an arbitrage or premium capture, or a curve structure designed to express relative value. By uniting futures market structure with productive assets, the framework maps how financial and physical value interact across global exchanges and supply chains.

Volume I begins where every standard of value has historically begun, with the metal that anchors confidence, liquidity, and trust.

Gold’s Return to Relevance

For decades, many viewed gold as a leftover of a bygone system, a static relic of fixed exchange regimes. Yet the forces that once diminished it - financialisation, policy expansion, and currency experimentation - have now turned in its favour. The end of the gold standard in 1973 freed gold from monetary constraint and restored it as the only asset without a liability.

The recent rally above $4,000 per ounce reflects a familiar cycle: when confidence in paper value fades, demand for permanence returns. Tariffs, fiscal imbalances, and strategic rivalry have made gold both a hedge against policy uncertainty and a quiet referendum on the dollar’s durability.

Central banks have recognised this shift. After decades of selling, they are again persistent buyers, rebuilding reserves in a pattern reminiscent of the pre-Bretton Woods era. Last year, aggregate official purchases lifted gold above the euro to become the world’s second-largest reserve asset. The institutions that once dismissed it now hold it as monetary insurance.

This cycle differs from past rallies. It is driven not by panic or inflation alone but by a structural re-evaluation of value itself. Gold, in this setting, is more than refuge. It is the cornerstone of a new standard linking monetary confidence to productive reality.

The Futures + Framework (Adapted for Each Sleeve)

Within The New Metals Standard, gold represents the first sleeve in a scalable structure, combining financial representation through futures with productive participation through listed equities. This framework captures both the psychology of price and the economics of supply, allowing investors to hold the idea of gold and the means of its production within a single, coherent allocation.

The architecture established here will extend through the series. In each subsequent volume, the Futures + Productive Asset model will evolve to reflect the character of the metal in focus, the exchanges that price it, the instruments that express it, and the equities that define its value chain. In gold, the emphasis falls on liquidity and universality; in later sleeves, the balance may tilt toward industrial use, technological leverage, or regional trade.

This first sleeve therefore serves as both a standalone allocation and a structural template: a method for translating physical scarcity into portfolio strategy, adaptable across the spectrum from monetary metals to industrial ones.

Illustrative Construct: Example Allocation within the Gold Sleeve

To demonstrate how the framework functions in practice, consider a representative allocation within the New Metals Standard – Gold Sleeve. The construct combines futures exposure with a proportionate equity allocation, creating a balanced expression of monetary sentiment and productive value.

Component	Instrument	Allocation	Purpose
Gold Futures	CME Feb'26 GCG6 (100 t oz)/ MGCG6 (10 t oz) or LBMA spot-linked forward	50%	Core financial exposure to gold price, capturing global sentiment and liquidity
Diversified Equity Basket	VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX US), VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ US)	20%	Broad exposure to global mining ecosystems
Large-Cap Producers	Newmont (NEM US), Barrick (GOLD US)	15%	Operational leverage and yield from established producers
Royalty / Streaming Firms	Franco-Nevada (FNV US), Triple Flag (TFPM US), Osisko Royalties (OR CN)	10%	Income stability and downside protection
Junior Miners	Skeena Resources (SKE CN), Snowline Gold (SGD CN), New Found Gold (NFG CN)	5%	Optionality and discovery exposure

The above construct illustrates how the model can be calibrated across liquidity, yield, and growth objectives. The futures leg provides immediate participation in the global gold price, while the equity sleeve translates price movement into earnings, dividends, and potential upside from production or discovery.

Weighting Methodology and Investor Calibration

The balance between futures and equities is not fixed. It reflects how an investor wishes to express their view, whether as a monetary stance or a productive allocation.

A higher futures weighting increases liquidity and macro sensitivity, aligning with short- to medium-term hedging or policy-driven trades. A higher equity weighting amplifies exposure to long-term production, dividend yield, and optionality.

The 50/50 (futures vs equities) structure shown in the table represents a neutral point, equal parts conviction in gold’s monetary role and participation in its productive base. Over time, this balance can evolve dynamically with volatility, policy outlook, and market confidence, allowing each sleeve within The New Metals Standard to remain both flexible and disciplined.

This article is intended for general information purposes only and reflects the market environment at the time of writing. It does not constitute investment advice, a personal recommendation, or an offer to engage in any trading activity. The content does not take into account individual objectives or circumstances and should not be relied upon as the basis for any investment decision. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

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