The New Metals Standard: Vol. I-IV
- George Griffiths
- 3 days ago
- 20 min read
04/12/25
The New Metals Standard – Preface
The New Metals Standard has been devised by George Griffiths of AMT Futures to explore the return to tangible value in a world of shifting monetary order and industrial transformation. Metals that once defined civilisation’s progress are re-emerging as investable expressions of both defence and growth.
Each Volume examines one “Sleeve”, or portfolio construction, within this framework. The series begins with gold, the monetary anchor of what was the Bretton Woods Gold Standard, before moving through silver, the bridge between value and utility; and into the industrial suite of copper and aluminium. We plan to add nickel and tin over time.
The renewed strength across these markets underscores a structural re-evaluation of value itself. Silver, testing the sustainability of pricing above $50 per ounce, and copper, approaching $11,000 per tonne, reflect investors’ rotation toward assets grounded in the physical economy rather than paper abstractions. The New Metals Standard builds on this shift, translating it into an investable framework that unites monetary confidence with productive reality.
The intellectual roots of this framework trace back to John Maynard Keynes, who described gold as a “barbarous relic” not out of contempt for the metal itself, but for the rigidity of anchoring value to a single standard. He envisioned a composite measure of worth, tied to a basket of productive commodities rather than scarcity alone. A century later, his logic feels newly relevant. The post-1971 assumptions of deep liquidity, universal dollar trust, and frictionless trade no longer hold. Tariff regimes, reserve diversification, and monetary fatigue have revived the search for value backed by what can be produced, stored, or transformed.
Within each sleeve, the New Metals Standard applies this principle in practice, combining an equity basket of relevant companies with a corresponding derivative position. This may take the form of an outright directional trade, an arbitrage or premium capture, or a curve structure designed to express relative value. By uniting futures market structure with productive assets, the framework maps how financial and physical value interact across global exchanges and supply chains.
Volume I – Gold
Volume I begins where every standard of value has historically begun, with the metal that anchors confidence, liquidity, and trust.
Gold’s Return to Relevance
For decades, many viewed gold as a leftover of a bygone system, a static relic of fixed exchange regimes. Yet the forces that once diminished it - financialisation, policy expansion, and currency experimentation - have now turned in its favour. The end of the Gold Standard freed gold from monetary constraint and restored it as the only asset without a liability.
The recent rally above $4,000 per ounce reflects a familiar cycle: when confidence in paper value fades, demand for permanence returns. Tariffs, fiscal imbalances, and strategic rivalry have made gold both a hedge against policy uncertainty and a quiet referendum on the Dollar’s durability.
Central banks have recognised this shift. After decades of selling, they are again persistent buyers, rebuilding reserves in a pattern reminiscent of the pre-Bretton Woods era. Last year, aggregate official purchases lifted gold above the Euro to become the world’s second-largest reserve asset. The institutions that once dismissed it now hold it as monetary insurance.
This cycle differs from past rallies. It is driven not by panic or inflation alone but by a structural re-evaluation of value itself. Gold, in this setting, is more than refuge. It is the cornerstone of a new standard linking monetary confidence to productive reality.
The Futures + Framework (adapted for each Sleeve)
Within the New Metals Standard, gold represents the first sleeve in a scalable structure, combining financial representation through futures with productive participation through listed equities. This framework captures both the psychology of price and the economics of supply, allowing investors to hold the idea of gold and the means of its production within a single, coherent allocation.
The architecture established here will extend through the series. In each subsequent volume, the Futures + Productive Asset model will evolve to reflect the character of the metal in focus, the exchanges that price it, the instruments that express it, and the equities that define its value chain. In gold, the emphasis falls on liquidity and universality; in later sleeves, the balance may tilt toward industrial use, technological leverage, or regional trade.
This first sleeve therefore serves as both a standalone allocation and a structural template: a method for translating physical scarcity into portfolio strategy, adaptable across the spectrum from monetary metals to industrial ones.
Illustrative Construct: Example Allocation within the Gold Sleeve
To demonstrate how the framework functions in practice, consider a representative allocation within the New Metals Standard – Gold Sleeve. The construct combines futures exposure with a proportionate equity allocation, creating a balanced expression of monetary sentiment and productive value.
Component | Instrument | Allocation | Purpose |
Gold Futures | CME Feb'26 GCG6 (100 t oz)/ MGCG6 (10 t oz) or LBMA spot-linked forward | 50% | Core financial exposure to gold price, capturing global sentiment and liquidity |
Diversified Equity Basket | VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX US), VanEck Junior Gold Miners EFT (GDXJ US) | 20% | Broad exposure to global mining ecosystems |
Large-Cap Producers | Newmont (NEM US), Barrick (GOLD US) | 15% | Operational leverage and yield from established producers |
Royalty / Streaming Firms | Franco-Nevada (FNV US), Triple Flag (TFPM US), Osisko Royalties (OR CN) | 10% | Income stability and downside protection |
Junior Miners | Skeena Resources (SKE CN), Snowline Gold (SGD CN), New Found Gold (NFG CN) | 5% | Optionality and discovery exposure |
The above construct illustrates how the model can be calibrated across liquidity, yield, and growth objectives. The futures leg provides immediate participation in the global gold price, while the equity component translates price movement into earnings, dividends, and potential upside from production or discovery.
Weighting Methodology and Investor Calibration
The balance between futures and equities is not fixed. It reflects how an investor wishes to express their view, whether as a monetary stance or a productive allocation.
A higher futures weighting increases liquidity and macro sensitivity, aligning with short- to medium-term hedging or policy-driven trades.
A higher equity weighting amplifies exposure to long-term production, dividend yield, and optionality.
The 50/50 (futures vs equities) structure shown in the table represents a neutral point, equal parts conviction in gold’s monetary role and participation in its productive base.
Over time, this balance can evolve dynamically with volatility, policy outlook, and market confidence, allowing each sleeve within the New Metals Standard to remain both flexible and disciplined.
Volume II – Silver
The New Metals Standard continues its exploration of value grounded in production and scarcity. If gold anchors confidence, silver connects it to utility. It is the bridge metal, part store of value, part industrial feedstock.
Across history, silver has linked monetary systems to the real economy. It trades with the psychology of money yet moves with manufacturing cycles. That dual nature makes it central to a world shifting from abstract liquidity toward tangible assets.
The Keynesian foundation remains. Value in this framework is not fixed to a single standard - it is distributed across productive commodities. Silver captures the principle in practice, scarce enough to preserve trust, essential enough to sustain growth.
Its role in today’s market is twofold - a hedge against policy fatigue and a structural input to energy transition. From solar to electronics, it ties monetary conviction to physical demand.
Within the New Metals Standard, each sleeve combines futures exposure with productive equity assets. The silver sleeve applies the same model as Volume I, adapted to silver’s volatility and industrial breadth. By linking futures structure to production chains, it maps how liquidity and output now define value together.
Silver’s Role in the New Metals Standard
Silver’s price reflects both the pace of industry and the price of money. When the global economy accelerates, factory demand tends to lift it. When growth slows or policy credibility weakens, investors often step in as alternative buyers.
Market structure is thinner than in gold. Daily turnover is smaller, inventories are tighter, and liquidity can fade quickly. London remains the backbone of trade, yet the value density gap means a larger physical pool translates into a much smaller notional market, which amplifies volatility.
London holdings have declined since mid-2021 as global demand outpaced mine output for several years. Exchange-traded funds and industrial users have drawn from the same pool, reducing metal available for lending and delivery. Global mine growth has been constrained by lower grades and slow project development in key producers such as Mexico, Peru, and China.
Policy risk has added another layer to silver’s structure. During the Liberation Day tariff scare, COMEX futures traded at a significant premium over London spot, widening the EFP (exchange for physical) and making physical delivery into the U.S. attractive.
Traders responded by booking air cargo space to ship silver into New York to capture the arbitrage. When silver was later excluded from the tariff regime, the differential contracted, though the episode underscored how sharply futures and the physical can decouple under stress.
Volatility has reinforced this momentum. Silver’s break into the low $50s, for the first time since the Hunt brothers’ squeeze in 1980, has drawn speculative money back into the market. Short-dated volatility has surged, with near-term options pricing around 55–60 vol.
On the upside, traders are using short-term calls and straddles to stay exposed to the move without excess directional risk. On the downside, leveraged longs are adding puts to protect profits. Together, these flows have lifted volatility across the front of the curve, feeding the rally.
CFTC data show speculative long positions rising sharply since mid-year but still below the March high. Dealers remain structurally short, hedging client exposure. This mix creates a reflexive cycle: speculative buying lifts prices, higher prices lift volatility, and volatility sustains demand for optionality. The link between price and volatility has turned positive, a hallmark of momentum-driven markets. Traders are paying for flexibility rather than fear, maintaining participation while guarding against reversal.
For the energy sector, especially solar, which has become one of the most visible and price-sensitive industrial demand channels for silver, where silver paste is critical, sustained high prices start to test margins and push substitution and efficiency research.
Roughly 10–12% of global silver consumption now comes from PV (photovoltaic) applications, almost all of it in the form of silver paste, a conductive ink printed onto solar cells.
This tension between monetary appeal and industrial cost is precisely why silver sits at the center of a portfolio that unites futures structure with productive assets. While higher prices can reduce metal intensity per cell, total demand continues to rise as global solar deployment expands.
The Futures + Framework (Adapted for the Silver Sleeve)
Within The New Metals Standard, the silver sleeve applies the same balanced structure introduced in Volume I, uniting futures exposure with productive equity assets. Together they express silver’s dual character: a monetary hedge and an industrial input.
The futures component provides immediate participation in global price discovery, while the equity allocation translates that price movement into production, cash flow, and reserve growth. Weighting can be adjusted dynamically between liquidity and yield, reflecting an investor’s desired blend of macro sensitivity and operational exposure.
A neutral allocation remains 50/50 between futures and equities. A higher futures weighting favors monetary expression, while a higher equity weighting increases exposure to production leverage and project optionality.
Component | Instrument | Allocation | Purpose |
Silver Futures | CME Dec'25 SIZ5 (5,000 t oz)/ SIOZ5 (1,000 t oz) or LBMA spot-linked forward | 50% | Core financial exposure to gold price, capturing global sentiment and liquidity |
Diversified Equity Basket | Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL US), Amplify Junior Silver Miners ETF (SILJ US) | 20% | Broad exposure to global mining ecosystems |
Large-Cap Producers | Fresnillo (FRES LN), Pan American Silver (PAAS US) | 15% | Operational leverage and yield from established producers with global scale |
Royalty / Streaming Firms | Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM US), Franco-Nevada (FNV US), Royal Gold (RGLD US) | 10% | Income stability and downside protection through royalty diversification |
Junior Miners | Vizsla Silver (VZLA US), Bear Creek Mining (BCM US), Dolly Varden Silver (DVS US) | 5% | Optionality and discovery exposure to high-grade emerging projects |
Weighting Methodology and Investor Calibration
This structure captures the breadth of silver’s value chain. The futures leg delivers macro-level exposure to price and liquidity, reflecting policy sentiment and speculative positioning. The equity component embeds participation in the productive economy, linking returns to the efficiency and geology of real assets.
Fresnillo anchors the allocation as the world’s largest primary silver producer, while Pan American Silver adds geographic and operational diversification across the Americas. Royalty firms such as Wheaton Precious Metals and Franco-Nevada contribute yield stability and risk diversification, balancing cyclical volatility in mining equities.
At the smaller end, Vizsla, Bear Creek, and Dolly Varden introduce exposure to exploration momentum and resource optionality - critical elements in an environment where mine supply growth is constrained.
As with all sleeves within the New Metals Standard, allocations are adaptable across volatility and cycle. Futures provide liquidity; equities deliver duration.
Volume III – Copper
Copper completes the circuit.
Where gold anchors monetary trust and silver bridges currency with industry, copper carries production itself, the medium through which energy and policy flow. Keynes’ definition of wealth as what can be produced rather than held fits well with copper as it embodies that idea of a material mined, melted, and moulded into use.
Copper’s Role in the New Metals Standard
Across energy, rare earths, fertilisers, and semiconductors, scarcity is increasingly deliberate.
Copper sits between that managed restraint and structural shortages, deepened by U.S. trade realignment and the drive to reshore manufacturing.
Treatment and refining charges have collapsed, forcing miners and traders to reconsider how value is shared. “Virtual tolling” deals now treat smelters as processors, returning refined metal to its owners - migrating value from transformation to the control of movement.
Even as their commercial margins compress, smelters have become strategic assets. The ability to refine, not just extract, now defines industrial sovereignty. Nations are beginning to follow China’s model: control the smelters, control the flow.
Australia’s recent A$135 million commitment to sustain domestic refining reflects this realignment - in the age of constrained trade, processing capacity is fundamental to resource security.
Mine disruptions reinforce the squeeze. Freeport’s Grasberg, second only to Escondida, will lose about 600 kt through 2026. Chilean output has softened, and inventories are thin. Prices above $11,000 /t should not be presumed to initiate a significant increase in production.
China’s imports confirm the imbalance: refined inflows up 22 % in September, concentrates down 6 %, scrap up 15 %. Refined metal is being stockpiled while feedstock availability tightens, and recycling is shifting from the margins to structural significance.
Policy is now reflecting these realities. The United States plans to list copper as a critical mineral, placing it beside silver, potash, silicon, rhenium, and lead.
The move formalises what markets have already begun to imply. Projects in mining, refining, and recycling will draw priority permitting and fiscal support; investors now read copper exposure as national capacity.
Illustrative Construct: Example Allocation within the Copper Sleeve
The New Metals Standard – Copper Sleeve combines futures-linked exposure with a diversified equity base. The composition table below is illustrative, showing how the framework can be adapted to express both financial and industrial participation within a single sleeve.
Component | Instrument | Allocation | Purpose |
Copper Futures / ETCs | CME HG (2,500 lbs) LME Copper LP (1-25 MT), WisdomTree Copper ETC (COPA.L), United Copper Index Fund (CPER.US) | 35% | Core exposure to copper futures and price structure, linking to LME and COMEX performance |
Diversified Equity Basket | 25% | Broad exposure to the global copper value chain, combining mining, refining and regional diversification | |
Large-Cap Producers | 25% | Direct participation in established copper production and cash flow generation across major jurisdictions | |
Junior Producers / Developers | 10% | Optionality on new discoveries and project expansion, offering leverage to rising copper prices | |
Industrial / Strategic Exposure (Optional) | 5% | Allocation to downstream or circular-economy participants, reflecting copper's role in re-industrialisation and energy transition |
Weighting Methodology and Investor Calibration
Market Architecture: Futures and Flow: The LME, COMEX, and SHFE together form a tri-market lens on copper, linking capital to production and finance to industry.
The LME anchors physical trade through its deliverable tonnage and standardized contract structure, serving as the global reference for spot and forward pricing. Its warehousing network, though limited in available tonnage, remains the institutional bridge between paper and physical copper, a neutral, duty-unpaid system unbound by national taxation or delivery constraints.
LME copper stocks currently total about 135 kt, of which 126 kt are on-warrant and 10 kt cancelled for load-out. Almost 90 percent sits in Asia, concentrated in Taiwan (53 kt) and South Korea (49 kt), with smaller parcels in Singapore and Hong Kong. Europe holds 17 kt, and the Americas none. Adding roughly 29 kt of off-warrant material brings total visible LME-linked inventory to around 165 kt, less than ten days of global consumption. The exchange’s footprint may be regionally narrow, but its price discovery role remains global: a small visible base anchoring a far larger flow of trade and finance.
COMEX reflects a blend of financial positioning, macro sentiment, and policy expectation. The shape of its forward curve has allowed much of the copper moved into U.S. warehouses during tariff uncertainty to remain there with limited cost pressure, effectively supporting storage. Inventories have risen to about 347,500 short tons, the largest among the three exchanges, underscoring COMEX’s role as the financial reservoir of copper.
SHFE completes the framework, representing China’s visible inventory base, currently around 110 kt, and near-term demand pulse, the domestic counterpart to the international flows represented on the LME.
The three exchanges describe a system physically lean yet financially deep, where storage, policy, and price continuously interact.
Copper in Equity Form
Copper represents the most integrated expression of the Futures + Productive Asset model within the New Metals Standard.
Its dual identity, both financial benchmark and industrial necessity, requires exposure that connects derivative structure with productive capacity.
Forward Derivatives or Futures-based instruments such as the WisdomTree Copper ETC (COPA:L) and the United States Copper Index Fund (CPER:US) provide efficient, collateralised access to copper’s price curve. COPA tracks the Bloomberg Copper Subindex, while CPER follows the SummerHaven Copper Index, which seeks to optimise contract selection along the COMEX curve.
Beneath this derivative layer lies the equity dimension, capturing the economics of production, logistics, and regional risk.
The Global X Copper Miners ETF (COPX:US) remains the most established vehicle, holding a global portfolio of 40 to 50 copper-focused companies across Chile, Peru, Australia, and China. The iShares Copper and Metals Mining ETF (ICOP:US) broadens this exposure to include diversified metal miners through the STOXX Global Copper and Metals Mining Index, offering a lower-cost entry point and slightly diluted copper purity. Together, they bridge the industrial and financial narratives, one focused on concentration, the other on diversification.
Large-cap producers form the structural core of the copper equity sleeve. Freeport-McMoRan (FCX:US) remains the sector’s bellwether, combining deep U.S. operations with the world-class Grasberg district in Indonesia.
Southern Copper Corporation (SCCO:US), integrated from mine to smelter, provides high-grade exposure to the Americas, anchored in Peru and Mexico.
Antofagasta (ANTO:L), London-listed and Chilean-based, adds South American leverage with strong operational transparency, while Zijin Mining Group (ZIJMF:US) introduces Chinese and frontier-market diversification through assets in Serbia, Peru, and the DRC. These holdings reflect the geography of copper supply: diversified extraction, concentrated processing, and asymmetric policy exposure.
At the margin, select junior producers provide optionality on price and discovery. Arizona Sonoran Copper (ASCU:US), advancing its Cactus Project in Arizona, and MAC Copper (MTAL:US), with active Australian operations and recent M&A interest, represent targeted exploration exposure. Taseko Mines (TGB:US) occupies a middle ground between speculative and established, offering production leverage without full-cycle risk.
Volume IV – Aluminium
Proof of Work, in Metal
Lately the global search for independent stores of value has expanded beyond vaults to blockchains. Digital tokens for gold signal how physical wealth can be represented through programmable ownership. Long before tokenisation arrived on the finance scene, certain materials already embodied many similar traits - decentralised, verifiable, energy-backed: aluminium is one.
Cryptocurrencies draw value from computation that confirms ownership – electricity is consumed to secure the ledger. The value of aluminium is electricity consumed to create ingots - a tangible record of power converted into production.
As computation becomes the new frontier of scarcity, the question is not only by what means do we generate electricity, but how is it allocated. AI training clusters, crypto mines, and aluminium smelters all compete for the same electrons - transforming energy into a different form of capital.
An Economic Standard
Discussions around prospects for the global economy inevitably touch upon inflation. Over time, inflation is anchored by capacity, productivity, and the cost of energy. Aluminium sits precisely at that intersection - as both a store of electricity and a fundamental input to growth.
Industrial Architecture
Historically, energy-rich regions sat far from demand centres, but that divide is narrowing. Cost structures also diverge along policy lines; some producers gain advantage by downplaying environmental constraints, while others accept higher costs in pursuit of strategic (longer term) resilience.
Gulf states are coupling solar and nuclear projects with state-backed smelters.
China is relocating smelters to hydropower provinces while simultaneously reducing export incentives and capping primary production.
Europe and the U.S., by contrast, face accelerating closures and growing import reliance. These structural realities were hidden beneath the noise of global integration, however Washington’s use of tariffs and subsidies to defend and bolster capacity, has broken the once discreet geopolitical race out into the open.
As the line between inventory and strategy blurs, market characteristics are adapting accordingly; new participants are entering the physical trading space with long term strategic intentions.
Aluminium inventory is now being held for optionality as well as for trade. When traders choose to store rather than sell, they are not speculating on short-term price or responding to nuances of curve structure, but preserving access to embedded energy in a volatile world.
Holding aluminium carries real costs in storage, insurance, and financing, yet the persistence of off-warrant stock suggests those costs are tolerated and accepted.
Circular Power – Secondary Aluminium
When primary production becomes constrained, the investment case for secondary grows stronger.
Recycling requires only about 0.7 MWh of electricity per ton - roughly five percent of the energy needed for primary, giving structural advantage in any environment of rising power prices or carbon intensity.
Over time, the market tends toward equilibrium between smelting and recycled supply.
Aluminium’s recyclability thus transforms it from a one-time energy store into a perpetual circuit. Companies that close that loop - converting scrap into new metal at a fraction of the primary energy cost - are an important consideration for a broad aluminium investment portfolio.
Battery Metals – Limiting Factors
Other metals can also be seen as stores of power, yet each carries the constraint of its specific technology implementation - limiting its role as a scalable reserve.
Lithium, nickel and cobalt possess far higher energy density by mass, but they are inseparable from the technologies that consume them. Their value is tied less to stored energy itself than to the pace of innovation in batteries, vehicles, and electronics.
Lithium is the most reactive example, capable of extraordinary energy storage per unit weight, yet prone to instability, making it unsafe to store in bulk or handle outside controlled environments. Large-scale production remains expensive, supply chains are regionally concentrated, and substitution pressures are constant as new chemistries emerge.
Nickel and cobalt face similar technology evolution challenges - both are critical to cathode technologies today, but shifts toward sodium-ion and solid-state systems could erode demand within a single innovation cycle.
By contrast, aluminium’s energy value is static and universal. It does not depend on a specific technology platform, nor does it degrade or become obsolete. Once produced, it holds its energy content indefinitely and can be re-melted or recast with minimal loss. In that sense, aluminium represents the most stable and scalable form of embodied electricity - a passive battery.
Current Market context
Aluminium prices are trading close to their highest levels in more than a year, with the LME three-month contract around $2,870 per tonne. The market has recovered markedly from its April low of $2,300, supported by tightening supply conditions and renewed physical demand. Momentum indicators remain firm, with the RSI in the low 60s, suggesting steady upward pressure rather than speculative excess.
In the United States, the all-in aluminium price has climbed to roughly $4,800 per tonne, reflecting record-high Midwest Premiums near 89 ¢/lb. The imposition and subsequent doubling of tariffs earlier in the year has constrained import flows from Canada and the Middle East, exposing the depth of U.S. dependence on foreign supply.
Analysts estimate that monthly imports between April and July were around 60,000 tonnes lower than in 2024, only partly offset by additional scrap inflows. The result has been a steady drawdown in inventories and a tightening domestic market.
Exchange data confirm the physical constraint. Global LME aluminium stocks stand near 545,000 tonnes, concentrated almost entirely in Asia, mainly Malaysia and South Korea, while the Americas show no registered inventory and Europe holds minimal tonnage. The regional imbalance underscores the divergence between production hubs and consumption centres that has defined this phase of the cycle.
Illustrative Construct: Example Allocation within the Aluminium Sleeve
Component | Instrument | Illustrative weighting | Commentary |
Core Exposure | Integrated Aluminium Equities: (Alcoa, Norsk Hydro, Century Aluminum) | 40-45% | Anchor exposure to primary production |
Strategic | Recycling & Downstream Equities: (Constellium, Kaiser Aluminum) | 25-30% | Structural shift toward energy efficient and recycling growth |
Tactical / Global Price | LME Alumiunium Forwards: (LAZ25) | 15-20% | Core directional |
Optional Regional | CME MW Premium (Platts): (AUPZ5) | 5% | U.S. market dynamics - selective deployment |
Within the aluminium investment universe, exposures can be structured across three layers.
Core holdings lie with integrated producers such as Alcoa, Norsk Hydro, and Century Aluminum, whose margins are most sensitive to energy and smelting economics. Strategic positions in recycling and downstream firms such as Constellium and Kaiser capture the efficiency yield of aluminium’s circularity.
Futures on the London Metal Exchange offer the most direct way to express a global view on price or inflation. CME contracts, including the North American Aluminium and Midwest Premium (Platts) futures, serve as valuable optional tools for targeting regional distortions and policy-driven price differentials.
Together, they form a coherent architecture through which aluminium can be treated not only as a commodity but as a diversified financial system linked to energy, policy, and industrial capacity.
Aluminium Equities
Alcoa (AA:US) – A leading U.S.-based, vertically integrated aluminium producer engaged in bauxite mining, alumina refining, and aluminium smelting, with growing exposure to low-carbon initiatives. The company remains central to the energy and industrial policy agenda in the United States, benefitting from tariffs, domestic supply protection, and rising demand for low-emission metal. Alcoa’s strategic push into sustainable smelting technologies such as ELYSIS - a zero-carbon electrolysis process developed with Rio Tinto - positions it at the forefront of next-generation primary production. Its balance between upstream and refining operations provides leverage to both alumina pricing and power costs.
Norsk Hydro ASA (NHYDY:US) – A Norway-headquartered aluminium and renewable-energy company operating across the full aluminium value chain, from hydropower generation to rolled and extruded products. Hydro continues to expand its “green aluminium” portfolio through projects such as Hydro CIRCAL and Hydro REDUXA, which certify low-carbon primary and recycled aluminium with traceable emission data. With European smelting capacity supported by hydropower and an expanding footprint in recycling, Hydro represents one of the clearest corporate examples of aluminium as a circular-energy asset. Its ADRs provide U.S. investors direct exposure to both renewable energy generation and low-carbon aluminium production.
Century Aluminum (CENX:US) – A U.S. producer of primary aluminium operating smelters in the United States and Iceland, supplying metal to industrial, automotive, and construction markets. The company has faced a temporary setback at its Icelandic smelter, where one of two potlines is expected to remain offline for up to a year following transformer damage, though management has indicated efforts to accelerate repair or implement an interim fix. Despite this disruption, Century remains integral to the U.S. aluminium supply chain and a key beneficiary of policy efforts to secure domestic metal production. Glencore Plc, formerly its largest shareholder, recently reduced its position through a block trade that broadened Century’s shareholder base but briefly pressured the stock after a strong price rally earlier in the year.
Kaiser Aluminum (KALU:US) – A U.S. downstream manufacturer specialising in rolled, extruded, and drawn aluminium products serving aerospace, automotive, and industrial sectors. Kaiser’s focus on value-added fabrication provides relative insulation from raw-metal price volatility, with performance tied instead to manufacturing demand and margin spread. Recent investments in recycling and billet production align with the sector’s shift toward lower-carbon, circular supply chains. Its strong exposure to U.S. defence and aerospace programmes positions Kaiser within the strategic industrial layer of the aluminium ecosystem.
Constellium SE (CSTM:US) – A France-based, NYSE-listed producer of high-performance aluminium rolled and extruded products, with extensive recycling and closed-loop systems supplying the automotive, aerospace, and packaging industries. Constellium’s recycling capacity exceeds one million tonnes annually, and the company continues to expand its role in circular production, recovering high-grade scrap from automotive and packaging waste streams. Its North American operations have benefitted from re-shoring trends and tariff-driven domestic demand, while long-term contracts with major aerospace and beverage companies provide durable revenue visibility.
Derivative Products
LME Aluminium LAZ25 25 MT (1-25 MT available)
CME Aluminium ALEF6 25 MT
CME MW Premium Platts 55,116 lb (25 MT)
The London Metal Exchange (LME) and CME Group both list physically deliverable aluminium futures representing 25 metric tons of 99.7 percent purity metal, though they serve distinct but complementary functions that, taken together, provide a broader market perspective.
The LME Aluminium contract is the global benchmark, supported by deep liquidity, long-dated forward trading, and delivery through an international network of approved warehouses.
Open interest and daily trading volumes on the LME are significantly larger, reflecting its role as the primary reference point for global aluminium pricing and financing.
The CME Aluminium contract mirrors those same physical specifications but is centred on North American delivery points and closely linked to the U.S. Midwest Premium (MWP) — the regional surcharge added to the LME base price to reflect delivery, logistics, and tariff costs in the American market. Quoted in U.S. cents per pound, the MWP captures regional supply-demand conditions and the effect of trade policy on domestic availability.
The CME also lists a dedicated MWP (Platts) futures contract that allows participants to hedge that differential directly. While the LME anchors global base pricing, the CME contracts provide an important, tradeable framework for North American producers, consumers, and investors seeking targeted exposure to regional aluminium dynamics.
This article is intended for general information purposes only and reflects the market environment at the time of writing. It does not constitute investment advice, a personal recommendation, or an offer to engage in any trading activity. The content does not take into account individual objectives or circumstances and should not be relied upon as the basis for any investment decision. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER
This article is intended for general information purposes only and reflects the market environment at the time of writing. It does not constitute investment advice, a personal recommendation, or an offer to engage in any trading activity. The content does not take into account individual objectives or circumstances and should not be relied upon as the basis for any investment decision. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
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