amtf. Group Insights

30/06/25

Whether through tariff risk, delivery restrictions, specification gaps, or regulatory divergence, metals markets are no longer bound by single-price logic.

The edge now lies in also understanding the real flow of usable metal combined with visibility on money flows.

Origin, regulation, and grade matter more than ever - price discovery starts with physical insight.

Global metals markets are undergoing a phase shift in structure. The U.S. is expanding its tariff net under Section 232, while China is preparing to open its futures markets to international participants. Both events will reshape how and where price is formed,

In a world of fractured access, regulatory filters, and variable specifications, screen price alone is no longer synonymous with market value.

Insight from the Ground: When Specification and Origin Supersede Supply Volume

From our own facilities - involved in processing, recycling, and supplying critical and performance metals - several themes now define the physical reality:

• Tin and tungsten are increasingly strained not by tonnage, but by origin filters and purity requirements. A sanctioned tin ingot may be widely available - but commercially unusable.

• Antimony and bismuth, key to specialty alloys and flame retardants, are heavily China-dependent, with no quick substitutes. Buyers are actively seeking recycled supply - but demand refined-quality guarantees that scrap currently struggles to deliver.

• Nickel and aluminium remain well-supplied at headline level, but for aerospace or battery applications, real shortages exist. Grade, form, and traceability now define the value chain.

• Across the board, inventory visibility has collapsed to less than three weeks, while buyers remain reactive and often siloed.

These constraints are largely invisible to financial pricing mechanisms yet drive real spreads and premiums in the commercial layer.

The Tariff Horizon: Broad, Uneven, and Long-Tail

U.S. federal court ruling in Manhattan struck down parts of President Trump’s global tariff regime - but left key Section 232 tariffs on steel, aluminium, and autos intact. The White House has announced its intent to appeal, and the ruling’s 10-day compliance window offers little enforceable clarity. Markets remain focused on the risk of policy persistence, not reversal. Expectation now is that alternative tariff mechanisms are likely to be explored ahead of the U.S. election cycle. Consensus from both investment banks and industry participants suggests:

• 25% tariffs will likely be applied not only to steel and aluminium, but to a wide array of critical and minor metals - including cobalt, antimony, manganese, tungsten, tin, and rare earths.

Tiered enforcement is probable:

• 0% for non-substitutable metals with no U.S. production.

• 10% for friendly-origin supply where domestic capacity is inadequate.

• 25%+ for strategic imports from adversarial or contested jurisdictions, particularly China and aligned economies.

• Potentially prohibitive levels for materials like graphite, scandium, and tungsten where Chinese supply dominance is near-total.

This won't just shift prices. It will reshape trade flows and contract terms – with greater emphasis on origin traceability and regulatory clean paths.

SHFE Access: A Structural Shift

The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) is moving toward formal internationalization, with a consultation process underway to:

• Permit foreign brokers direct access.

• Enable RMB-denominated contracts for international participants.

• Establish full delivery protocols with foreign intermediary pathways.

This is further step toward a parallel pricing ecosystems, where RMB- and USD-settled contracts co-exist, and physical players may choose the venue that best reflects their logistics, exposure, or financing preferences.

This won’t replace other exchanges - instead adding optionality, especially for metals like nickel, tin, cobalt, and aluminium, where Asian physical flow dominates.

The Opportunity Isn’t Just Arbitrage - It’s Clarity

In the emerging market structure, price and value must be considered separately:

• Regional premium spreads reflect actual scarcity more than front-month futures.

• Delivery timelines and purity requirements move faster than exchange curve structures.

• Compliance status (tariff-exempt or not) determines whether a trade can even happen - regardless of price.

Brokers and producers who see the difference between availability and deliverability will shape the next pricing paradigms.

This article is intended for general information purposes only and reflects the market environment at the time of writing. It does not constitute investment advice, a personal recommendation, or an offer to engage in any trading activity. The content does not take into account individual objectives or circumstances and should not be relied upon as the basis for any investment decision. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

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